So it’s Academy Awards week. For a lot of us film nerds, it’s like our Super Bowl Sunday (although the nerdiest of film nerds are too cool for something so commercial as the Oscars). And, while most of you will be filling out March Madness brackets on Sunday, some of you may be participating in an Oscar pool. That’s where I come in. Over the next few days, I will be giving you my bet-the-house Oscar predictions in every category (PLEASE do not bet the house–this really is one of the most unpredictable Oscars in a long time). Feel free to steal them for yourself and dominate your Oscar pool.

Today, we start with the biggest of the awards: the four acting categories. the screenplay awards, Best Director, and Best Picture. For a lot of pools, these really are the only ones you need to know. Plus, while there are a lot of people who care about Best Editing and Best Live Action Short Film, you are probably not one of those people. Now, an important note for making your picks: it does not matter if you saw the movies or liked the movies. Predicting the Oscars is all about knowing info that has very little to do with the movies themselves. They are an exercise in groupthink, so it’s far more important to know how the voters as a group think about the nominations than whether they are “right” about which films are actually good. And with that said, let’s go!

Best Supporting Actor – Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

I’m starting off with the easiest pick of the bunch, because this one’s a no-brainer. Quan has the best story of the nominees. The 80s child star—you may remember him as Short Round from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom or Data from The Goonies—made a massive comeback in the Best Picture frontrunner. His performance as Wayland, the kind and conflicted husband of main character Evelyn in EEAAO and the various multiverse versions of him, is wonderful. And he has just been so appreciative in every speech he’s given for every precursor award he has won…which is pretty much all of them. If you don’t pick Quan here, you are not even trying.

Look out for: Umm…maybe Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin, who won the British Academy Award (BAFTA) in this category? Nah, not really. Quan is a lock.

Best Supporting Actress – Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

We’re going from the the easiest pick to the hardest pick. There is no favorite in this category because three actress are essentially neck-and-neck. Even at this late date, Curtis, Angela Bassett for Wakanda Forever, and Kerry Condon from Banshees have split the precursor awards and all can realistically win this. My personal thought is the wave of support Banshees had earlier in the Oscar season (yeah, that’s a thing) has waned, leaving Curtis and Bassett, both of whom could pick this up as a career-recognition award. When the nominations were announced, I thought Bassett was almost a lock, but Curtis recently won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award in this category and seems to have momentum. Bassett gets lots of Oscar-type of emotion in Wakanda Forever, but it is a Marvel movie and Marvel has seen better days. Plus, Curtis is great in EEAAO acting against type as a homely–and at times, murderous–IRS worker who I didn’t even recognize for much of the movie. Plus, Curtis is (slightly) older and has had even less awards recognition over her career, which makes a win for her a better story. And Oscar voters love a good story.

Look out for: Bassett and Condon, for the reasons stated above.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Women Talking got overlooked in many of the year end critic’s lists and awards, which hurt its chances of being a major player this Oscar season. But Polley is very respected as a filmmaker and some believe she was snubbed in favor of an all-male Best Director nominee slate. The movie itself was not my favorite; I still think much of the dialogue and staging feels stilted. But the movie–about a group of women in an isolated religious community trying to decide how to respond to abuse committed without consequence by some of the group’s men–has a stellar cast and timely subject matter. That should be enough to get Polley her first Oscar.

Look out for: All Quiet on the Western Front, which, even though it is in German, got a truckload of nominations.

Best Original Screenplay – Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (maybe)

Scheinert and Kwan, collectively DANIELS, really did make the most original and imaginative movie of 2022. That should count for something. They also won the Writer’s Guild Award (WGA) in this category, which usually bodes well as it is the award actually awarded during the Oscar voting period. They are also nominated for Best Director, which can help unless they are likely to win that award…which they are. This is another very close category, so choose this one cautiously, because…

Look out for: The Banshees of Inisherin could also win. Martin McDonagh, who the Academy is quite fond of, did not compete for the WGA (it’s for American films) and won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. It’s got a smart script and a lot of nominations, so this may be the way for voters to award Banshees and McDonagh because they don’t think it will win in its other categories.

Best Actor – Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Fraser was the very early favorite when The Whale debuted at the Venice International Film Festival. It’s another great comeback story, a box office draw of the late 90s and early 2000s who essentially disappeared from Hollywood and was doing the convention circuit for the money coming back with a big, critically lauded performance. But then the movie came out in America, and a lot of people didn’t like it. Others–notably Austin Butler from Elvis and Colin Farrell from Banshees–started sharing in the big awards. But the criticism of The Whale always included the caveat “…but Fraser’s performance is great.” Putting on prosthetics and special effects to play a 600-pound man struggling with a lifetime of pain, Fraser won the SAG a couple of weeks ago and has climbed back up into the favorite spot. Again, the voters love a great story.

Look out for: Austin Butler from Elvis. Oscar voters love to vote for actors who effectively mimic real-life people, and Butler seemed to channel Elvis at times–two of the best scenes in film last year were Butler’s reenactments of the “This is Elvis!” special and Elvis’s Vegas show. But Butler is very young and the conventional wisdom says he’ll always have another chance.

Best Actress – Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is another two-person race between Yeoh and TÁR’s Cate Blanchett. But Yeoh has had a long and appreciated career and never even been nominated. She has also won a lot of precursor awards, including the recent SAG award in this category. And Blanchett has already won two Oscars. So, Yeoh almost wins by default…even though it really is an astonishing performance and is most deserving of the Oscar.

Look out for: Blanchett, because her depiction of Lydia Tar is also an astonishing performance and is most deserving of the Oscar.

Best Director(s) – Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

For months, this certainly looked like this was going to be Steven Speilberg’s third Oscar for directing his autobiographical The Fabelmans. And that is certainly still possible. But DANIELS have been on a roll. They recently won the Director’s Guild of America’s top prize, which may be the most accurate predictor of the corresponding Oscar. And, as I may have said once or twice already, EEAAO is an amazing and inventive film that certainly deserves to win.

Look out for: Speilberg, because you can never rule him out.

Best Picture – Everything Everywhere All at Once

When the nominees were announced, I thought there were really four favorites: EEAAO, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, and…Top Gun: Maverick, which has made almost a billion-and-a-half dollars as a movie for adults and put people back into theaters post-COVID for good. But then All Quiet on the Western Front and its many nominations won the BAFTA for Best Picture and Elvis just won’t go away, and it seemed to get even more complex. But the SAG went to the ensemble of EEAAO (their equivalent of Best Picture), EEAAO won the Producer’s Guild of America award for Best Picture, and everything seems like its in place for EEAAO to have a big night on Sunday.

Look out for: Banshees is the only film still kind of close, but not that close.

So, if that’s all you need to know, good luck with your picks! But if you compete in the real contests or pools that make you pick every category, stay tuned. I’ll be back tomorrow with predictions in all the technical categories and finish up on Sunday with the “other” awards (everything from Best Animated Feature to, yes, Best Live Action Short Film).

(Photo credit: AMPAS)